Below the Surface

Now that the two conventions are over, the actual presidential race begins and the candidates have 8 weeks to convince voters of their worthiness. Both conventions were interesting, primarily as media spectacles rather than forums for recommendations of substantive policies and proposals. The media has been captivated for months with Obama's magical eloquence and sometimes cruel with McCain's pedestrian prose and awkward public presence. The Republican National Committee and McCain's election committee, quick to spin Obama as an insubstantial celebrity lacking experience, have not been convincing in portraying McCain as distinct from the Bush administration, despite McCain's deserved (but no longer current) reputation as a maverick. Opportunity squandered? Perhaps. But Obama has had difficulty connecting to the average person and explaining what actual changes his presidency, should he win, would produce. So what did the conventions accomplish? The Democrats navigated a minefield of potentially debilitating internal squabbles, mostly between Hillary Clinton's camp and Obama's, and presented a united front, with ringing endorsements of Barack Obama. His acceptance speech hinted at deeper policy prescriptions, most notably to me his proposed $150 billion-10 year investment in alternative technologies. He did what he does best...articulated his vision with inspiration, weaving in personal stories that revealed far more about his background than he has  in prior speeches. His family story is especially noteworthy if for no other reason than it reduced (but did not eliminate) criticism that he is an elitist who doesn't understand the average American. Simply put, he gave a leader's speech and sounded convincingly like, well, a leader. Did he overcome doubts about his short resume? No. There is no denying that he does not have McCain's experience. And no amount of speech-making will fix that. So voters are going to have to look at his policy proposals to understand what an Obama presidency is likely to do in the coming years. However, a leader is more than his or her policy proposals. They have to implement and to do this requires a capable team, the ability to rally people around the main ideas, and the tenacity to see the proposals through.

McCain's convention challenge was different--he had to find a way to convince the public that he is different than Bush and that his three decades in Washington DC are the kind of experiences voters want in a President. On this score, McCain did ok, but not great. By most media accounts, his convention speech was flat and uninspiring. He appeared stilted, smiling at odd times as if the tele-prompter said 'smile now' to remind him to look natural. He was interrupted by hecklers, harming the flow of his speech. Despite these challenges, voters again need to look at his proposals to see if he is the leader they want.  McCain has been a maverick for more years than he has been a supporter of the party line. Unfortunately, he has been the latter far more frequently in recent years, which is the record Democrats are likely to focus on in the coming 8 weeks.

What about their respective running mates? Obama's Vice President, Joe Biden, is a Washington DC insider, like McCain. He is respected, like McCain. And he has excellent foreign policy experience as head of the Senate Foreign Relations committee (witness his exemplary work in the 1990s Balkins crisis). Biden comes from an average, middle class background and is from the Northeast of the US--one of the areas of the US where job loss and 'rust-belt' concerns are dominant issues. Biden is also 65 years old, so he helps Obama's campaign relate a bit better to older Americans. However, Biden also has a reputation for being long-winded, meandering, and occasionally reckless with his comments. Plus, he was discovered to have plagiarized British Labor politician Neil Kinnock's speech in his own speech when he was a presidential candidate in the 1988 democratic primaries. This ended his presidential run and was a significant public embarrassment to him at the time. Like many US politicians that err, Biden rehabilitated his image with his Senatorial work ever since and the plagiarism incident has virtually disappeared as an issue. Obama has been generally praised for selecting a Vice President whose experience fills in weaknesses that Obama had. As business leaders know, the best CEOs often populate their teams with people better than they, who strengthen the weaknesses in their own skills, creating a better leadership TEAM overall. The word team is important here because in the event the leader is incapacitated, having a competent successor is vital to maintaining momentum and instilling confidence in the public that the organization (in this case, the US government) will continue to function properly. Biden strengthen's Obama's foreign policy credentials and helps the Obama campaign connect more directly with the average middle class voter. If Vice Presidential choices are indicative of Presidential leadership and decision making ability (such narrow indicators are dangerous--nevertheless, we do gain some insight into presidential candidate), then Obama performed well.

Sarah Palin, McCain's Vice Presidential choice, is the Governor of Alaska. Her selection was a complete surprise since few outside of Alaska had ever heard of her. However, the selection revealed a bit about McCain--his maverick side effectively came through loud and clear. She has been Governor for less than two years. Prior to this she was Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, a town of 9,000. Her family, tout the Republicans, is a mirror of the average American family, with 5 kids spread over 20+ years and a pregnant teenager. She hunts moose, believes in God and that major issues like the Iraq war are "God's will", and favors drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge (McCain does not want to drill in the Arctic...). Of course, hers is not the typical American family (the average family has just over 2 children, does not hunt for moose, and prefers separation of church and state as stipulated in the US Constitution). She delivered a stinging speech that received almost as much media attention as Obama's. Her comments were sometimes sarcastic, occasionally funny, delivered cleverly, and, according to analysts from around the world, lacking in substance. In effect, she came out swinging against Obama, yet offered nothing to counter the perception that the Republicans lack fresh ideas on how to 'change' the direction of the country.  Some argued that she helps McCain reach out to the hard-core, right-wing Republican base, enabling McCain to move more toward the center. That may be true, although I am not convinced that there is a large voting group of moose-hunting evangelists following God's orders to fight in Iraq seeking Vice Presidential candidates that share their narrow interests. It reminds me of a sign I once saw outside a business in a small town that said "Fresh Sandwiches and Chainsaw Repair"--yes, that is certainly a niche market, but how many people really want that?  (Sarah Palin is not the only cynic out there...). Pandering to the extreme elements of the party while also trying to straddle the political center is harder to do in practice than it appears. In recent years, US presidential candidates have typically moved more toward the center and away from the more extreme elements of their parties, for very practical reasons (i.e. why alienate half the electorate with extreme prescriptions?). While attempting to regain his maverick mantle, McCain also raised a new issue--will he make incautious or even reckless decisions as president?  As I read more about Palin, I find her fascinating, but her choice strikes me as cynical on McCain's part, which is disappointing. The next 8 weeks will show us how effective Sarah Palin is in understanding foreign policy, daunting domestic issues of inner-city challenges, complex international trade and, perhaps even more importantly, what a Vice President does (witness her remarks from just a few weeks ago when she stated she did not know what a US Vice President does--while it sounds cute and pokes fun at the VP role in the US government, it also appears naive and sends an unfortunate signal internationally that Americans are comfortable electing people unfamiliar with their own federal government).

Despite my support for Obama the past few months, I do have my doubts--I want to see and hear more specifics and have him demonstrate how he would lead. I was a supporter of McCain's presidential efforts in 2000 because at that time he was a more believable maverick. Now he just looks opportunistic. So on balance, I still heavily favor Obama. His ticket is stronger overall and his policy proposals appear more in tune with global (not just US) needs today--and the US does live in a globalized world, so international issues and perceptions do matter... As an ex-pat, the US's international reputation has suffered tremendously under the Bush administration this past 8 years. Most Americans are aware of this only peripherally and since it is not a pressing day to day issue for them, they don't see it is central to the future influence the US needs to have in the world. However, as Bill Clinton said during his speech at the Democratic convention, the world is more impressed by the "power of our example than the example of our power". Our reckless military adventures and muscular, unilateral foreign policy approach has alienated people around the world and given license to other countries to test our mettle, knowing that that US cannot send its military everywhere to protect everyone. Just witness the recent Russian invasion of Georgia. In decades past, the soft power of credible US diplomatic skills coupled with the threat of US military power was often enough to influence other countries to tame their aggressive ways. This is no longer true and a McCain presidency does little to change this. Obama, on the other hand, represents real change, both symbolically and practically. He exudes the qualities that help make leaders successful (yes, clear, inspiring communication is important--as long as it has substance and the leader shows the capacity to build a leadership team with complementary strengths).

Of course, this is just my opinion and you have yours. To help focus the discussion on the issues, I have pasted the following comparison between Obama and McCain from the MSNBC website (you can visit this directly at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26575403/...scroll to the bottom and look for the box that says 'Fact File--McCain and Obama On the Issues'). You can also visit each candidate's respective websites to learn more:
www.barackobama.com
www.johnmccain.com

 

fact file McCain and Obama on the issues

Choose a category on the left to see where the two candidates stand on a selection of issues as the fall campaigns begin.

Abortion McCain: Opposes abortion rights. Has voted for abortion restrictions permissible under Roe v. Wade, and now says he would seek to overturn that guarantee of abortion rights while being open to a running mate who supports abortion rights. Would not seek constitutional amendment to ban abortion. Obama: Favors abortion rights. Afghanistan McCain: Favors unspecified boost in U.S. forces. Obama: Would add about 7,000 troops to the U.S. force of 36,000, bringing the reinforcements from Iraq. Has threatened unilateral attack on high-value terrorist targets in Pakistan as they become exposed, "if Pakistan cannot or will not act" against them. Campaign finance McCain: The co-author of McCain-Feingold campaign finance law, he plans to run his general campaign with public money and within its spending limits. He has urged Obama to do the same. He applied for federal matching funds for primaries but later turned them down so he could spend more than the limits. Federal Election Commission belatedly approved his decision to bypass the primary funds, but rejected McCain's claim that he needed no such approval. McCain accepts campaign contributions from lobbyists. Obama: The presidential campaign's fundraising champion has brought in $390 million. He plans to raise private money for his general election, despite his proposal last year to accept public financing and its spending limits if the Republican nominee does, too. Obama refuses to accept money from federal lobbyists and has instructed the Democratic National Committee to do the same for its joint victory fund, an account that would benefit the nominee. Obama does accept money from state lobbyists and from family members of federal lobbyists. Cuba McCain: Ease restrictions on Cuba once U.S. is "confident that the transition to a free and open democracy is being made." Obama: Ease restrictions on family-related travel and on money Cuban-Americans want to send to their families in Cuba. Open to meeting new Cuban leader Raul Castro without preconditions. Ease trade embargo if Havana "begins opening Cuba to meaningful democratic change." Death penalty McCain: Has supported expansion of the federal death penalty and limits on appeals. Obama: Supports death penalty for crimes for which the "community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage." As Illinois lawmaker, wrote bill mandating videotaping of interrogations and confessions in capital cases and sought other changes in system that had produced wrongful convictions. Education McCain: Favors parental choice of schools, including vouchers for private schools when approved by local officials, and right of parents to choose home schooling. More money for community college education. Obama: Encourage but not require universal pre-kindergarten programs, expand teacher-mentoring programs and reward teachers with higher pay not tied to standardized test scores, in $18 billion plan to be paid for in part by delaying elements of moon and Mars missions. Change No Child Left Behind law "so that we're not just teaching to a test and Crowding out programs like art and music." Tax credit to pay up to $4,000 of college expenses for students who perform 100 hours of community service a year. Energy McCain: Favors increased offshore drilling and federal money to help build 45 nuclear power reactors by 2030. Opposes drilling in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Proposed suspending the 18-cent a gallon federal gasoline tax but idea got no traction. Global warming plan would increase energy costs. Obama: Now would consider limited increase in offshore drilling. Opposes drilling in Arctic reserve. Proposes windfall-profits tax on largest oil companies to pay for energy rebate of up to $1,000. Opposed suspension of the gas tax. Open to tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for short-term relief from high energy costs. Global warming plan would increase energy costs. Gay marriage McCain: Opposes constitutional amendment to ban it. Says same-sex couples should be allowed to enter into legal agreements for insurance and similar benefits, and states should decide about marriage. Obama: Opposes constitutional amendment to ban it. Supports civil unions, says states should decide about marriage. Global warming McCain: Broke with President Bush on global warming. Led Senate effort to cap greenhouse gas emissions; favors tougher fuel efficiency standards. Favors plan that would see greenhouse gas emissions cut by 60 percent by 2050. Obama: Ten-year, $150 billion program to produce "climate friendly" energy supplies that he'd pay for with a carbon auction requiring businesses to bid competitively for the right to pollute and aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050. Joined McCain in sponsoring earlier legislation that would set mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions. Supports tougher fuel-efficiency standards. Gun control McCain: Voted against ban on assault-type weapons but in favor of requiring background checks at gun shows. Voted to shield gun-makers and dealers from civil suits. "I believe the Second Amendment ought to be preserved — which means no gun control." Obama: Voted to leave gun-makers and dealers open to suit. Also, as Illinois state lawmaker, supported ban on all forms of semiautomatic weapons and tighter state restrictions generally on firearms. Health care McCain: $2,500 refundable tax credit for individuals, $5,000 for families, to make health insurance more affordable. No mandate for universal coverage. In gaining the tax credit, workers could not deduct the portion of their workplace health insurance paid by their employers. Obama: Mandatory coverage for children, no mandate for adults. Aim for universal coverage by requiring employers to share costs of insuring workers and by offering coverage similar to that in plan for federal employees. Says package would cost up to $65 billion a year after unspecified savings from making system more efficient. Raise taxes on wealthier families to pay the cost. Housing McCain: Open to helping homeowners facing foreclosure if they are "legitimate borrowers" and not speculators. Obama: Tax credit covering 10 percent of annual mortgage-interest payments for "struggling homeowners," scoring system for consumers to compare mortgages, a fund for mortgage-fraud victims, new penalties for mortgage fraud, aid to state and local governments stung by housing crisis, in $20 billion plan geared to "responsible homeowners." Immigration McCain: Sponsored 2006 bill that would have allowed illegal immigrants to stay in the U.S., work and apply to become legal residents after learning English, paying fines and back taxes and clearing a background check. Now says he would secure the border first. Supports border fence. Obama: Voted for 2006 bill offering legal status to illegal immigrants subject to conditions, including English proficiency and payment of back taxes and fines. Voted for border fence. Iran McCain: Favors tougher sanctions, opposes direct high-level talks with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Obama: Initially said he would meet Ahmadinejad without preconditions, now says he's not sure "Ahmadinejad is the right person to meet with right now." But says direct diplomacy with Iranian leaders would give U.S. more credibility to press for tougher international sanctions. Says he would intensify diplomatic pressure on Tehran before Israel feels the need to take unilateral military action against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iraq McCain: Opposes scheduling a troop withdrawal, saying latest strategy is succeeding. Supported decision to go to war, but was early critic of the manner in which administration prosecuted it. Was key backer of the troop increase. Willing to have permanent U.S. peacekeeping forces in Iraq. Obama: Spoke against war at start, opposed troop increase. Voted against one major military spending bill in May 2007; otherwise voted in favor of money to support the war. Says his plan would complete withdrawal of combat troops in 16 months. Initially had said a timetable for completing withdrawal would be irresponsible without knowing what facts he'd face in office. Social Security McCain: "Nothing's off the table" when it comes to saving Social Security. Obama: Would raise payroll tax on wealthiest by applying it to portion of income over $250,000. Now, payroll tax is applied to income up to $102,000. Rules out raising the retirement age for benefits. Stem cell research McCain: Supports relaxing federal restrictions on financing of embryonic stem cell research. Obama: Supports relaxing federal restrictions on financing of embryonic stem cell research. Taxes McCain: Pledged not to raise taxes, then equivocated, saying nothing can be ruled out in negotiating compromises to keep Social Security solvent. Twice opposed Bush's tax cuts, at first because he said they were tilted to the wealthiest and again because of the unknown costs of Iraq war. Now says those tax cuts, expiring in 2010, should be permanent. Proposes cutting corporate tax rate to 25 percent. Promises balance budget in first term, says that is unlikely in his first year. Obama: Raise income taxes on wealthiest and their capital gains and dividends taxes. Raise corporate taxes. $80 billion in tax breaks mainly for poor workers and elderly, including tripling Earned Income Tax Credit for minimum-wage workers and higher credit for larger families. Eliminate tax-filing requirement for older workers making under $50,000. A mortgage-interest credit could be used by lower-income homeowners who do not take the mortgage-interest deduction because they do not itemize their taxes. Trade McCain: Free trade advocate. Obama: Seek to reopen North American Free Trade Agreement to strengthen enforcement of labor and environmental standards. In 2004 Senate campaign, called for "enforcing existing trade agreements," not amending them.

Source: Associated Press

Updated: 1:06 p.m. ET Aug. 27, 2008

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URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26575403/